Recent escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela and Uganda's special role

Recent escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela and Uganda's special role

Since October 15, 2025, tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated significantly. These have been triggered by US military operations in the Caribbean, renewed sanctions, and allegations of drug trafficking against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Under the Trump administration, the US has stationed at least eight warships, a nuclear submarine, and F-35 fighter jets in Puerto Rico, involving thousands of US sailors and marines. Washington accuses these actions of drug trafficking. The bounty on Maduro has been doubled to $50 million due to alleged links to drug cartels smuggling fentanyl-laced cocaine into the US. Venezuelan government officials, including Ambassador to Uganda Fátima Fernández, dismiss these claims as a pretext for regime change, pointing to Venezuela's vast natural resources—including the world's largest proven oil reserves (383.8 billion barrels), the fourth-largest natural gas reserves, and the second-largest gold reserves—as the real motivation. More than 1,000 unilateral US sanctions since 2015 have severely impacted sectors such as energy, health, and banking. This resulted in an 87% decline in state-owned oil production and an estimated $230 billion in lost revenue. Humanitarian challenges are exacerbated by limited access to medicine, food, and education. This buildup is reminiscent of previous US interventions. Critics like Ugandan election observer John Ndabirano compare it to the "book of lies" before the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2011 Libya intervention, warning of an "imminent act of military aggression" that violates international law and threatens regional stability. Venezuela claims to be a "peaceful country" committed to its sovereignty. Maduro calls for national unity but promises to defend itself if necessary. Ambassador Fernández emphasized diplomacy, declaring: "We prefer dialogue to threats, because threats destroy mutual respect. The most civilized way to resolve disputes is through dialogue, not warships." And now comes Museveni's engagement. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni (President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has been the president of Uganda since 1986. He is one of the longest-serving leaders in Africa and the world, having led Uganda for nearly four decades. Museveni was born in 1944 in Mbarra district, Uganda, and studied political science at the University of Dar es Salaam. He first became involved in politics during the struggle against the regime of Idi Amin in the 1970s and later founded the Front for National Salvation, which played a role in overthrowing Amin), in his role as chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), a 120-member bloc of predominantly developing countries that seeks to avoid aligning with major powers, was directly called upon to mediate these tensions. During a press conference at the Venezuelan Embassy in Kampala on October 14, 2025, Ndabirano and Ambassador Fernández urged Museveni to use his position to pressure the NAM, the African Union (AU), and the East African Community (EAC) toward immediate de-escalation. Specifically, they called for a cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of US warships from the Caribbean, citing Uganda's "moral responsibility to work for peace and combat unilateral aggression." Ndabirano emphasized that African nations must avoid the "complicious silence" observed before previous Western-led wars, adding: "Any aggression against a sovereign country is never justified." This appeal came ahead of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) mid-term review meeting on October 15, 2025, in Kampala, where foreign ministers are expected to adopt the "Kampala Declaration" under the theme "Deepening Cooperation for Shared Global Prosperity." Global conflicts, including the US-Venezuela standoff, are expected to be high on the agenda. However, there was no immediate response from Museveni's office or the US State Department, despite US-Uganda relations remaining good, with recent discussions on counterterrorism and economic cooperation. Museveni's past ability to harmonize relations with both Western powers and non-aligned states positions him as a potential bridge. However, his response could strain Uganda's strategic partnership with the United States, which views Kampala as a key African security partner. The broader context includes Venezuela's push for global action against US sanctions, which it considers illegal under the UN Charter, as well as fears of intervention following a recent US anti-narcotics raid in the Caribbean that hit a ship linked to suspected Venezuelan narco-terrorists. There has been little discussion on X (formerly Twitter), including posts about the Kampala press conference and lists that include Museveni, along with Maduro, among the global leaders facing US pressure. The situation remains fluid, and NAM's engagement could reinforce calls for multilateral dialogue rather than escalation.