What happens in Tanzania

The election in Tanzania has triggered large-scale demonstrations. This is surprising, as during the years Samia Suluhu Hassan ruled, hardly any problems were reported. There were a few convictions of opposition members, but these went largely unnoticed. Following these powerful demonstrations, the question must be asked: Is this call for revolution coming from abroad? Are foreign interests behind these demonstrators? This is an extremely relevant question that touches upon the core of Tanzanian politics and international relations. Rumors and speculation about "foreign interests" behind the narratives following the Tanzanian elections persist and are based on a combination of historical, geopolitical, and economic factors. While direct control is difficult to prove, there are clear reasons for the spread of these theories. Below is an overview of the frequently mentioned interests and actors, as well as the context of the rumors. This is a highly relevant question that touches the core of Tanzanian politics and international relations. 1. The Primary “Foreign Interest”: Geopolitical Influence Tanzania is a significant country in East Africa—stable, populous, rich in natural resources (including recently discovered vast natural gas reserves), and with a strategically important coastline. This makes it a desirable target in the renewed great power competition, especially between the West (the US and the EU) and China, with Russia also playing a role. What are China's interests? There's economic dominance. China is Tanzania's largest trading partner and a major financier of important infrastructure projects (ports, railways, pipelines). A stable, pro-Chinese government in Dar es Salaam is crucial for protecting these investments and the success of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. The Belt and Road Initiative is a comprehensive infrastructure and investment program launched by China in 2013 under President Xi Jinping. The BRI aims to improve connectivity and economic cooperation between China and over 150 participating countries across several continents. China pursues a policy of non-interference in domestic affairs. It cooperates with the incumbent government, regardless of its political orientation. Therefore, China's primary interest is stability. Rumors often suggest that China would support the incumbent government (CCM) to maintain this stability and protect its investments. Western interests (USA & EU). The US and the EU are consistently committed to democratic principles, human rights, and good governance. They strongly criticized the repressive climate under the late President John Magufuli. The election of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who ushered in an era of reconciliation and reconstruction, was therefore very much welcomed. The West seeks to contain Chinese influence. A key strategic goal is to offer an alternative to Chinese influence. This is achieved by promoting transparency, supporting civil society, and cooperating with a government perceived as more open and reform-oriented. Rumors suggest that Western powers might support narratives that strengthen the pro-democracy opposition and criticize any setbacks in Samia's reforms. The aim is to create a more balanced political environment that counters Western-influenced governance and business practices. Russia also has interests. Russia is striving to build diplomatic alliances in Africa to counter its isolation from the West. It maintains historical ties with Tanzania dating back to the socialist era of Julius Nyerere. Russia is frequently accused of using disinformation campaigns in Africa to sow discord, undermine Western credibility, and support pro-Western governments. Rumors suggest that actors with ties to Russia may be amplifying narratives portraying the West as neocolonialists attempting to destabilize Tanzania. And now to the "rumors." The nature of the "rumors" and their possible origins. The “rumors” can typically be divided into several categories, and various foreign actors may have an interest in promoting one category or another. There are rumors about election manipulation. After every election, the opposition often raises allegations of fraud. Foreign interests may be involved if they are characterized by: Turning a blind eye (China/Russia). When a disputed result is quickly recognized to maintain stability and their relationship with the incumbent. Amplifying allegations (West). When their embassies, funded NGOs, or media outlets (such as the BBC or VOA) provide a significant platform for the opposition's claims of irregularities. Then there are the rumors about the candidates' loyalty. It is common for political opponents to portray each other as puppets of a foreign power. A candidate might be accused of being “too close” to the West, China, or even Middle Eastern interests (given Tanzania's Muslim population and its ties to the Gulf). The narratives surrounding key issues. The gigantic LNG project in Lindi, valued at over US$40 billion, is a colossal undertaking. Rumors abound about which foreign company (British, Norwegian, Chinese) holds the upper hand and how their governments are influencing Tanzanian politics to secure the contract. Given Tanzania's substantial debt, primarily to China, there are persistent rumors that this debt is being used as leverage to influence political decisions—a widespread narrative often referred to as "debt-trap diplomacy." Tanzania's public debt increased significantly in 2025 and currently stands at approximately 116 trillion Tanzanian shillings (around US$46.5 billion) by mid-2025. The debt comprises roughly 70% foreign debt and 30% domestic debt, with the foreign debt being heavily denominated in US dollars, making the country vulnerable to currency fluctuations. The debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 44-47%, placing it in the medium risk category. Despite the high level of debt, the government currently considers it manageable, supported by foreign exchange reserves of around US$5 billion and a moderate government budget deficit of approximately 3% of GDP. The debt is primarily being incurred for infrastructure projects and economic recovery. However, the high import dependency and significant exposure to the US dollar pose long-term challenges. The Domestic Causes. It is crucial to understand that foreign interests cannot simply invent rumors out of thin air. They exploit existing domestic political circumstances. The CCM has been in power since independence. This long rule naturally leads to accusations that it uses state resources and manipulates the system to remain in power. The opposition, particularly CHADEMA, enjoys broad popular support but frequently complains of systematic discrimination. It is the primary source of election-related rumors and often seeks international support to legitimize its claims. Tanzania has a dynamic but often partisan media landscape. Social media is permeated by disinformation and propaganda, largely generated domestically but amplified by foreign bots or troll farms. Conclusion So, are foreign interests behind the rumors in Tanzania after an election? The answer is only yes, indirectly. Foreign powers (the US, China, Russia, and the EU) pursue clear and competing strategic, economic, and geopolitical interests in Tanzania. While they do not necessarily generate the core rumors, they amplify, finance, and exploit narratives that serve their objectives. This is done through diplomatic statements, the promotion of civil society organizations, media coverage, and sometimes covert disinformation campaigns. The main dynamic is often portrayed as follows: China (and to a lesser extent, Russia) favors stability and the current CCM government, while the West demands democratic reforms and greater equality of opportunity, which supports the opposition. Therefore, the rumors about foreign interests are not baseless conspiracy theories. They reflect Tanzania's position as a key African nation in the complex global power struggle of the 21st century. The "rumors" are a tool in a broader information war in which domestic conflicts are increasingly intertwined with international rivalries.