President William Ruto stated that Kenya is on the cusp of profound change

William Ruto calls on Kenyans to consider what would happen if he were to lead the country for four terms. This question is posed by "tuko". President William Ruto stated that Kenya is on the cusp of profound change, with improved roads, schools, markets, and healthcare. He called on Kenyans to consider what a president with a long-term and sustainable vision for inclusive and national development can achieve. The president was in Kiambu County, where he inspected the construction of the two-lane road between Rironi and Mau Summit. President William Ruto appealed to Kenyans to consider what the country can achieve under his leadership in four terms. On September 13, 2022, Ruto took office after winning the election with 50.49% of the vote for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Kenya Kwanza coalition. This was Kenya's first competitive transfer of power from a sitting vice president and his first presidential candidacy. Ruto's "grassroots upward" economic model emphasizes the inclusion of the working population, equality, and social justice, and resonates strongly with young people and marginalized groups in the face of high unemployment and inequality. Launch of the Hustler Fund (November 2022): A microcredit program providing instant loans to millions of Kenyans, thereby promoting financial inclusion and entrepreneurship among low-income earners. Facilitation of 187,474 jobs abroad through labor export agreements; creation of 188,256 jobs in the construction and informal sector (Jua Kali); oversight of the construction of 130,988 affordable housing units. 76,000 teachers were hired to address the teacher shortage and improve access to quality education. GDP growth recovered from 0.7% in 2023 to a projected 4.6% in 2024 (compared to 4.9% in 2022), driven by fiscal reforms and a focus on infrastructure. In September 2024, an agreement was signed with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, opening the German labor market to up to 250,000 Kenyan skilled and unskilled workers, thereby promoting remittances and knowledge transfer. As a member of the Ocean Panel, strategies for a sustainable marine economy, aligned with global environmental goals, were advanced. Environmental commitments: Kenya has committed to combating climate change by phasing out the use of fossil fuels in electricity generation by 2030, positioning itself as a leader in green energy in Africa. This is the official view. What is the reality? President William Ruto's "bottom-up" model, presented as a cornerstone of his 2022 election campaign, aims to promote inclusive growth by empowering the "Hustler Nation"—small traders, farmers, and low-wage earners—through initiatives such as the Hustler Fund (microloans for entrepreneurs), agricultural subsidies, and the creation of jobs in the informal sector. It contrasts with the "trickle-down" theory, which promises to reduce inequality through grassroots measures. By December 2025, however, the model faces widespread criticism in the face of mounting economic pressures, as it fails to deliver tangible benefits. This leads to public disillusionment, protests, and doubts about its viability. Critics argue that the model lacks structural depth and relies on short-term aid rather than sustainable reforms, thereby exacerbating the budget situation. The following outlines the main problems identified through economic analysis, public debate, and recent events: 1. Failure to alleviate economic hardship and high cost of living Despite promises to empower the population, many Kenyans report worsening living conditions. Inflation, unemployment, and poverty persist or are even worsening. The model's focus on micro-enterprises has not resulted in broad-based employment growth, leaving the targeted "hustlers" feeling betrayed. In his State of the Nation address in November 2025, Ruto defended the agenda in light of "increasing pressures over economic performance." However, the public perceives it as detached from everyday problems such as soaring food and fuel prices. Many Kenyans share this frustration. One Kenyan remarked, “Candidate Ruto and President Ruto are two completely different worlds,” highlighting the perceived neglect of low-income communities. To fund basic programs, the government introduced punitive taxes (such as housing and health levies in the 2024 Finance Act), which contradicted the model’s anti-poverty ethos. These tax increases fueled the Generation Z protests in June 2024, in which demonstrators rejected the “hustler” narrative as a facade for elite enrichment. The revenue shortfall persists: The Kenya Revenue Service missed its target for the first quarter of 2025/26 by 90 billion Kenyan shillings (US$700 million), widening budget gaps and necessitating further borrowing. Critics call Ruto “Kenya’s biggest problem” and link the taxes to broken promises of aid. The World Bank's May 2025 outlook classified Kenya as "highly at risk from debt over-indebtedness." Public debt is straining repayments and restricting investment in key sectors such as agriculture and housing. New funds, such as the 5 billion Kenyan shilling Nyota Fund (youth grants), are criticized for further increasing the debt burden and repeating past mistakes without addressing the underlying inefficiencies. This has undermined credibility: Ruto's speech highlighted the "burden of debt repayment" as an obstacle to the agenda, yet reforms remain superficial. What happened? At a meeting between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Kenyan President William Ruto on September 13, 2024, in Berlin, a "Migration and Mobility Pact" was indeed signed. The Kenyan version (is somewhat different): After the meeting, the Kenyan government (specifically the Ministry of Labor) announced that the agreement would give up to 250,000 skilled Kenyan professionals the opportunity to work in Germany. This figure made international headlines. The German denial (which was inevitable): The German Federal Government immediately and unequivocally rejected this specific figure. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit called the number "completely fabricated." Olaf Scholz put it into perspective. Chancellor Scholz clarified that the signed document was a Memorandum of Understanding, not a legally binding agreement with fixed quotas. The goal is to facilitate legal migration and organize the recruitment of skilled workers – but not to guarantee a fixed number of jobs. The agreement aims to accelerate and simplify procedures for legal labor migration, for example, through the recognition of professional qualifications and placement through official channels. It is part of Germany's strategy to recruit skilled workers from outside the EU to counteract the labor shortage in Germany. While Kenya presented the agreement as a major success with a concrete target number, the German side insisted that it was a declaration of intent to cooperate in principle, without any binding quantitative commitments. The figure of 250,000 was never officially confirmed by Germany and was actively denied. The "Health Care Agreement" refers to the Kenya-US Health Cooperation Framework, a historic bilateral health agreement between Kenya and the United States. It was signed on December 4, 2025, in Washington, D.C., and marks the first such pact under the Trump administration following its sweeping reform of the U.S. foreign aid system. President William Ruto of Kenya was present, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed the document on behalf of the United States. The agreement was reached in the context of Ruto's official visit to the United States. Following Trump's inauguration in January 2025, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) was dissolved, resulting in massive cuts to aid programs. This affected programs worldwide addressing poverty, disease, and malnutrition. Instead, the administration pursues an "America First Global Health Strategy" that prioritizes direct government-to-government agreements—shifting funding away from NGOs and toward strategic partners like Kenya. Kenya was praised as a "long-standing ally," in part for its leadership role in the stabilization mission in Haiti. The agreement aligns with Trump's foreign policy, which links aid to geopolitical alignment. Other African countries are expected to follow suit, but Nigeria and South Africa will not due to political differences. Five years (2025–2030), total value approximately US$2.5 billion (around 230 billion Kenyan shillings). - USA: US$1.6–1.7 billion (depending on the source). - Kenya: US$850 million (Kenya commits to increasing its own financing to become more independent in the long term). - Key areas of focus include: - Prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and polio. - Maternity care, infectious disease control, and emergency preparedness. - Modernization of Kenya's health infrastructure: Acquisition of modern equipment for hospitals, expansion of the health workforce (including 107,000 community health promoters), and promotion of universal health coverage (UHC). - Direct funding to government institutions, with a focus on insured clinics and faith-based providers. - Goals include: efficient use of resources, reduction of dependency, and strengthening of the bilateral partnership. Ruto emphasized: "Every shilling and every dollar will be spent efficiently, effectively, and accountably." Positive voices: Ruto called it a "watershed moment" for Kenyan-American relations and praised Trump's "personal leadership." Rubio spoke of a "milestone agreement" that eliminates waste and ideology from aid policy. The UN AIDS agency (UNAIDS) welcomed the pact. The criticism: A key aspect is data privacy. Reports indicate that the agreement grants the US government and American companies extensive access to Kenyan health data, including real-time insights into patient records, in exchange for financial assistance. Critics fear that this could expose sensitive information such as HIV status, tuberculosis treatment histories, vaccination records, genomic data, mental health information, insurance claims, hospitalizations, and even biometric data (e.g., names, locations, and fingerprints from healthcare facilities). Legal experts argue that this violates Article 31 of the Kenyan Constitution of 2010, which guarantees the right to privacy, including the protection of personal health data. Without effective safeguards, data could be misused for undesirable purposes, such as surveillance, commercial use by US companies, or epidemiological studies that go beyond public health objectives. Cybersecurity concerns are also serious: Access for foreign actors increases vulnerability to hacking, data manipulation, data extraction, or misuse and could transform Kenya's healthcare system into a tool for US mass surveillance. As one expert noted, this could allow the US to "monitor anyone using a Kenyan healthcare facility in real time." Furthermore, there are concerns about a lack of transparency and full disclosure. The full text of the agreement has not yet been published, reinforcing calls for closer scrutiny. Kenyans and civil society groups are questioning which specific categories of data will be shared and how they will be protected. Health Minister Aden Duale promised swift publication (as of December 7, 2025) and assured that only anonymized, aggregated data would be shared to prevent the tracing of individuals. Skeptics, however, doubt these assurances, pointing to the hasty signing and lack of transparency of the agreement. This reflects criticism of Ruto's government over opaque foreign agreements. Some see this as a disadvantage for Kenya—valuable national data being traded for short-term financial aid. Concerns about fairness have also been raised. The "America First" strategy prioritizes US foreign policy goals and could neglect multilateral initiatives like PEPFAR (which has saved 25 million lives worldwide since 2003). Kenya's selection as the first African signatory is seen as recognition for its commitment in Haiti, but carries the risk of alienating partners like China, which has invested heavily in Kenyan infrastructure and could retaliate with economic countermeasures. Domestically, the agreement puts pressure on Kenyan institutions to absorb direct US funds, fueling fears of inefficiency and dependency. Experts warn of the loss of control over biometric and epidemiological data, which could influence US strategies in areas such as migration, security, or even population control. The public and experts have reacted strongly. Public debates and media reports have highlighted these risks. Articles emphasize the dangers of patient data and call for parliamentary oversight. Experts like Professor von Nation and Kyle Spencer (Uganda Internet Exchange Point) underscore the need for inviolable legal certainty. The government counters that the agreement strengthens accountability and promotes universal healthcare. Ruto assures that “every dollar will be used efficiently.” Although the agreement could fundamentally transform the Kenyan healthcare system, concerns persist. These stem from fears of data colonization, constitutional violations, and unequal power dynamics after USAID funding ends. Full disclosure and independent audits are essential to address these concerns. “Will Kenya change or not? All the work involved in building houses and markets only takes two years. Now imagine what I can achieve in ten years. And what about 20 years? Kenya will definitely change,” Ruto said. 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