The presidential election campaign has begun.

The presidential election campaign has begun. The president expects a lead of two to three million votes in next year's elections, as ambitious competitors join his party. President William Ruto is confident. He is aiming for re-election in August 2027 “with a margin of two to three million votes so that we can unite the country and move forward together,” he declared on January 26 at a meeting of the National Governing Council (NGC) of his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party at State House, according to Africa Confidential. This phrase appears to be an observation or quote from current Kenyan politics – and it hits the nail on the head regarding what has happened in recent months leading up to the beginning of 2026. Since mid- to late 2024, Kenyan President William Ruto has pursued a strategy of integrating former rivals and critics into his government or into closer cooperation. The goal is quite simple: to weaken the opposition, build broad support, and significantly improve his chances of re-election in 2027. Raila Odinga, a long-time arch-rival, was still the main opponent in 2022. There is a formal partnership and cooperation. Ruto has integrated Odinga and his allies into government structures – a classic “handshake” move to keep Raila out of the 2027 race. Raila Odinga has since passed away. His death has raised questions about Kenya’s political future and could alter the dynamics of the opposition within existing coalitions. Uhuru Kenyatta is a former president and a supporter of Odinga against Ruto in 2022. Ruto actively contacted him, there were surprise meetings, and a rapprochement has begun. Parts of Uhuru's camp have moved closer to Ruto. The KANU party and the Moi family, including Gideon Moi, have forged an alliance with the old KANU party (formerly under dictator Daniel arap Moi) through Ruto. This is symbolically powerful because Ruto had previously broken with the Moi dynasty. Other opposition figures and regional leaders are mentioned. Several ministerial posts and coalitions went to former critics or those close to the opposition, e.g., from the Azimio camp or Coast Region politicians, who set conditions for their support in 2027. Ruto calls this "broad-based government" and "building bridges"—critics see it as opportunistic power consolidation and an attempt to fragment the opposition. While the opposition (e.g., around Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, and parts of Mount Kenya) is trying to unite and build a joint candidate for 2027, it remains divided. As things stand at the beginning of 2026, it appears that Ruto has either neutralized or won over many ambitious competitors. His rhetoric: The opposition has no plan other than "Ruto must go," while he focuses on a bottom-up agenda, jobs, and first-world status by 2050. Whether this lasts until 2027 depends on the economy (cost of living, youth protests), corruption allegations, and whether the "new allies" truly remain loyal. But yes – many ambitious politicians have (at least for now) joined Ruto. Ruto isn't interested in doing anything good for Kenya; he simply wants to stay in power. He will do whatever it takes to achieve this. One thing is certain: it makes absolutely no difference who wins the election, as long as the newly elected president comes from the current spectrum of parliament. It should be someone from Gen Z, someone with a vision for the future. Ruto has silenced the opposition, effectively silencing them. Currently, it seems everyone in Kenya is trembling before Ruto. William Ruto has a realistic chance of winning the 2027 election – currently it even looks more like a victory for him, but it is by no means certain or a sure thing. As of February 2026 (i.e., still a good 18 months until the election in August 2027), the available surveys and political analyses show the following picture: In the Infotrak polls (end of 2025 / beginning of 2026), Ruto is ranked at approximately 23–28% as the preferred presidential candidate, significantly ahead of all other individuals. - Fred Matiang'i: ~13% - Kalonzo Musyoka: ~12% - Babu Owino: ~7% - Rigathi Gachagua: ~5% Many potential candidates are in the single digits. This means Ruto leads the field, but with very low absolute approval ratings – a typical sign of a fragmented opposition. In the TIFA poll (September 2025), only about 32% supported or expected Ruto's re-election, while 68% opposed it. However, this was before Raila Odinga's death and some recent developments. Ruto himself publicly speaks of a landslide victory with a 2-3 million vote lead and relies on his broad-based government strategy (including cooperation with parts of ODM). His people, such as Aden Duale, say: "There is no serious competitor." In regions like Western Kenya, he even leads in some polls (e.g. 25%). Reasons why Ruto might win (pro-Ruto arguments) are: that the opposition is highly fragmented – Raila Odinga is no longer a unifying figure. No single opposition candidate is currently polling above 13-15%. Ruto controls the state machinery and resources and began forging alliances early on (Coast, parts of Mt. Kenya, Western, etc.). He has often performed well in mini-elections/by-elections recently. Many analyses (e.g., Africa Confidential) call him "unloved but unbeatable" because he holds the structures for electoral victories in his hands. Reasons why Ruto might lose (counter-arguments) are: that approval ratings below 30% for an incumbent are very weak – high levels of disapproval due to taxes, cost of living, corruption and police violence (Gen Z protests). If the opposition (Matiang'i + Kalonzo + Gachagua + others) were to actually agree on a candidate, the situation could change. Raila Odinga's death has changed the playing field – some polls say it makes it easier for Ruto, others say it makes it harder. On social media and on the street, the sentiment against him is often very loud ("Ruto Must Go"), but this does not always translate 1:1 into votes. Conclusion (as of now) If the election were held today, Ruto would most likely win – but not by a landslide, because the others are even weaker and more divided. A lot can still happen between now and 2027: economic developments, new alliances, scandals, a united opposition candidate, or renewed mass protests. Currently, I tend to think yes, he can (and probably will) win, but it strongly depends on whether the opposition finally presents a real "champion" and whether the economic situation improves or worsens. Is Matiang'i a real competitor of William Ruto? Fred Matiang'i (full name: Dr. Fred Okengo Matiang'i) is one of Kenya's most prominent and controversial politicians at present – and definitely the strongest single competitor to William Ruto in the polls for 2027. Born on April 22, 1968 in Borabu, Nyamira County (Gusii Region, Kisii/Nyamira). He is Abagusii (Kisii). Married, two children. - Education – very well educated: - Bachelor in Education (Kenyatta University). - Master in Education/English (University of Nairobi). - PhD in Communication and Comparative Literature / Social Change (University of Nairobi). Started as a teacher (Primary School in Kisii), then academic, consultant and expert in governance/program implementation. Under President Uhuru Kenyatta (2013–2022), he was one of the most powerful and efficient ministers – often described as an “enforcer” or “no-nonsense manager”: Famous-infamous for tough reforms against exam cheating, strikes and chaos in the education system – many praise him for this (order & integrity), others criticize him as being too authoritarian. Responsible for security, digitalization, election logistics – and above all for the hard line on protests and opposition (e.g. 2017 elections, police operations). He is considered Uhuru's right-hand man and favorite in Jubilee – many say he was the "real CEO" of the government in some areas. Deputy Party Leader at the Jubilee Party (which remains from Uhuru's influence). Presidential candidate for 2027 – he officially announced his candidacy in May 2025. He positions himself as the opposition leader against Ruto: He emphasizes the unity of the opposition (United Opposition), speaks of "one candidate" (often implicitly himself), and harshly criticizes Ruto on issues such as the economy, education, corruption, voter registration of foreigners, etc. Strong in the Gusii region (Kisii/Nyamira) – he is pushing a “six-piece vote” for Jubilee there. He actively tours (e.g. Coast, Murang'a, Kiambu) and appeals to youth: "Take on leadership positions," pushing voter registration. Uhuru is said to have strongly backed him in 2025/26; some former ministers (e.g. Machogu) endorse him; interestingly, he has Gen Z support (according to Africa Confidential) – despite his tough security background. Current surveys by Infotrak (Dec 2025 / end of 2025) show that Ruto could reach ~28%, Matiang'i ~13% (clear second, ahead of Kalonzo ~12%, Babu Owino ~7%, Gachagua ~5%). In some older polls (e.g. Research 8020 Oct 2025) it was even ahead of Ruto (24% vs. 21%). He is Ruto's closest challenger because he can point to successes (reforms, discipline). He is established and organized (Jubilee structures). But his heavy hand as Interior CS (police brutality allegations, 2017/2022) could divide him among Gen Z and the opposition – many say "he was part of the system". Conclusion Matiang'i is no newcomer – he's a heavyweight with a track record, intellectual depth, and a tough reputation. For many, he's the only one who can truly threaten Ruto if the opposition (Kalonzo, Gachagua, Karua, etc.) accepts him as their flag bearer and doesn't split them. Without unity, he remains strong, but probably not strong enough. If the opposition produces a true “one champion”, he could cause serious problems for Ruto – especially in Mt. Kenya, Nyanza, Western and among urban youth. What the aforementioned individuals lack, and will lack in the future, is an understanding of what a President is. “The president is a servant of the people” expresses a central democratic idea: The highest political authority, in this case the president, has the duty to act in the interest and for the good of the people. For this, he must possess democratic legitimacy. In democratic systems, the president is either directly elected by the people or appointed by a democratically legitimized body. His power thus derives from the people, and he is accountable to them. The phrase "servant of the people" emphasizes that the president is not a ruler over the people (which is not the case in Kenya), but rather should represent their interests and promote their well-being. He should make decisions that serve the common good. In a state governed by the rule of law, the president is bound by laws and constitutions. His power is limited and controlled to ensure that he does not become an autocrat, but rather fulfills his role as a servant of the people. The phrase also has a symbolic function, clarifying the relationship between the head of state and the citizens. It is intended to build trust and strengthen the democratic order. There are real-world examples. In Germany, the Federal President is often referred to as the "head of state," who primarily has representative duties but also possesses moral authority and has the common good in mind. In other countries, such as the USA, the president, as head of government and head of state, has a strong executive function, but is also accountable to the people. Conclusion The phrase "The president is a servant of the people" encapsulates the fundamental democratic principle that political power must always serve the people. It serves as a reminder that leaders bear responsibility and must not abuse their power for personal gain.