Africa and the war in Iran

The negotiations in Islamabad have failed. African states should pay very close attention to what happened there. Africa is rich in mineral resources, including rare earth elements. This could very easily trigger US intervention. We will return to this point later. The US left Pakistan without an agreement after 21 hours of marathon negotiations with Iran. Vice President JD Vance stated that Washington had presented its "final and best offer" before departing from Islamabad. “The bad news is that we didn’t reach an agreement,” Vance said at a press conference. “We negotiated in good faith… And we’re leaving with a very simple proposal, a method of mutual understanding, which is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.” Vance said Washington had formulated its red lines "as clearly as possible," but Iran had "chosen not to accept our conditions." Asked which demands Tehran had rejected, he denied holding public negotiations and reiterated the central US demand for a long-term commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. The threat of US aggression against Iran is causing concern in African countries for various reasons. However, these concerns can vary depending on the country and its relations with both sides. The most important aspects are outlined below: Iran is a major oil producer. Any conflict that disrupts oil supplies from Iran or via the Persian Gulf could lead to a sharp rise in global oil prices. This would have serious consequences for the economies of African countries, which are net oil importers, and would increase transportation costs, energy prices, and inflation. A military conflict of this magnitude could destabilize global markets and negatively impact trade, investment and economic growth worldwide, including in Africa. Supply chain disruptions: Instability in a key region could disrupt global supply chains and affect the import of food, medicines and other vital goods into African countries. A major conflict in or around Iran could trigger a humanitarian crisis and potentially result in refugees. While the main flow of refugees would likely go to neighboring countries, this could theoretically also have indirect effects on African countries, for example through a global redistribution of aid funds or increased tensions in other regions. Diversion of attention and resources: A conflict between the US and Iran could divert the attention and resources of international actors (including the UN, the EU and other major powers) from addressing pressing African problems such as poverty, conflict, climate change and healthcare. Any significant geopolitical event could alter the global order. African countries have a strong interest in a stable and predictable world order that enables their development. Drastic changes could create uncertainty. Some analysts fear that the conflict with Iran could be exploited by extremist groups to recruit followers, including in unstable regions of Africa, by spreading narratives of a “clash of civilizations” or “Western aggression”. While most African countries and Iran do not have direct military or political links that could pose an immediate threat, some African countries maintain diplomatic missions or economic interests that could be indirectly affected. Overall, the main concerns of African countries relate to the negative economic and humanitarian consequences of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East, as well as global instability and the international community's turning away from the problems of the African continent itself. Main reasons for the growing US interest in Africa Africa is rich in important raw materials: Rare earth elements (necessary for electronics, electric vehicles and green energy); Cobalt (up to 70% of the world's reserves are located in the Democratic Republic of Congo); Lithium, manganese, nickel; Oil and gas (Nigeria, Angola, Libya, etc.); agricultural land and water resources. China has been actively investing in Africa for many years (Belt and Road Initiative). The US is trying to prevent China from establishing a monopoly on the continent. Chinese investments in Africa amount to tens of billions of dollars annually, and the United States is responding with an increased presence. Africa's population could grow to 2.5 billion by 2050 – a huge future market. A growing middle class creates demand for goods and services. A young population – a potential workforce. The United States is concerned about the activities of terrorist groups in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and other regions. Through military cooperation (e.g., within the framework of AFRICOM), the United States is attempting to stabilize the situation. Africa could become an important supplier of raw materials for green technologies (cobalt, lithium, copper) and a platform for the development of renewable energies. Political influence in international organizations Africa has 54 votes in the UN. The support of African countries is important to the United States in votes on key international issues. Specifically, this means that AFRICOM (US Africa Command) is a US military command that coordinates operations and trains local armed forces. The Power Africa program invests in the continent's energy sector. The AGOA Act (African Growth and Opportunity Act) grants African goods preferential access to the US market. US-Africa summits (e.g., 2022) demonstrate the strategic interest. Investments through the DFCN (US International Development Finance Corporation) finance infrastructure and energy projects. The diplomatic presence includes the expansion of embassies and the appointment of special envoys. Criticism and risks are never far away. Perceptions of neocolonialism. Some African countries view the growing influence of the USA with suspicion and see it as an attempt to impose their interests. Competition with other players. Besides China, France, Russia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, India and Brazil are important players on the continent. Corruption and instability. Investments in some countries are risky due to political instability, corruption, and weak governance. Double standards. The USA is sometimes criticized for subordinating its Africa policy to geopolitical goals (confrontation with China/Russia) instead of taking into account the actual development of the continent. It can certainly be said that the USA is increasing its presence in Africa, but this is not simply a matter of "hunger", but rather a strategic calculation: Access to resources and markets; Containment of China; Ensuring safety; Strengthening global influence. This interest is long-term and is expected to increase further in the coming decades.