Super El Niño in Africa

https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/124225-kenya-met-issues-el-nino-alert-warns-dry-mid-year-conditions-followed-flood-risk-late The statement that a "Super" El Niño is officially underway is incorrect according to the latest data from June 2026. According to the most recent official information, the status of El Niño 2026 is as follows: The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has issued an official El Niño warning. This means that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also indicates that warm ocean waters are contributing to its development. El Niño is present but is not yet classified as "Super" or very strong. The current forecast predicts a moderate to strong event by the end of the year, with a probability of it becoming "very strong" (anomalies >2°C) of approximately 37%. El Niño is expected to intensify and is likely to become a strong or very strong event during 2026, potentially comparable to some of the most intense El Niño events ever recorded. A key indicator of its potential strength is the large area of ​​warm water (5–7°C above average) below the ocean surface, which is expected to further amplify the event in the coming months. Authorities in Africa are officially warning of a possible “super El Niño,” which is expected to hit Africa—particularly the southern and central regions—hardest with severe drought. Southern Africa faces a high risk of drought shortages from October 2026 onward. This threatens crops and could return countries like Zimbabwe to net importers of maize. Record temperatures are expected. West Africa has already experienced record fires this year, and the situation is likely to worsen. As agriculture is largely dependent on rainfall, crop failures are probable. Added to this are high fertilizer costs and conflicts, which are already straining households and are expected to lead to sharp food inflation. Governments and organizations like the SADC are urging immediate preparations, including investments in irrigation and drought-resistant crops.