Wider war with Iran and it's influence on Africa

This is an urgent problem! To be clear from the outset: A full-blown "global war" involving Iran is not yet foreseeable – we are talking about a serious escalation (for example, the Iran-Israel conflict from 2024 to 2026). However, even these regional tensions have repercussions for Africa, and I would like to highlight two main influencing factors: the economic and the political-strategic. The most important influencing factor here is energy and logistics. Approximately 20% of global oil trade and significant quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Should threats or actual restrictions on shipping occur as a result of an escalation, this will lead directly to shortages and rising prices. For many African countries that import fuel, this means: - rising prices for gasoline and other petroleum products; - inflation; - logistical disruptions for other goods. ... Furthermore, the volatility of energy markets affects the continent's financial markets: exchange rates can fluctuate, and borrowing costs for governments and businesses can rise. There is also a more direct channel: some African countries themselves trade with Iran (for example, Niger has negotiated uranium shipments in exchange for drones and weapons). In such cases, an escalation could abruptly end lucrative deals due to the risk of secondary sanctions, or conversely, push these countries toward a closer alliance with Tehran as an alternative partner in the face of Western pressure. On the one hand, the tension itself diverts the attention and resources of Iran and its adversaries from African affairs—that is, the activities of both sides on the continent are temporarily reduced. On the other hand, Africa could become a stage on which broader geopolitical contradictions manifest themselves. Pressure to Take Sides: Some African states are forced to perform a balancing act: they participate in coalitions (for example, within the BRICS countries) that include both Iran and its opponents. This creates the risk that the country will become the focus of diplomatic negotiations or even be subjected to external sanctions for maintaining close ties with one of the parties. There is a risk that local tensions in Africa (for example, in the Sahel region) will be used as a platform for indirect confrontations between forces supporting different sides in the Middle East conflict. For some countries, close relations with Iran during times of escalation can represent both an opportunity (to gain support or investment) and a risk (loss of trust among some international partners). This has a twofold effect: On the one hand, Africa is exposed to direct economic shocks; on the other hand, it is drawn into a broader geopolitical game in which its interests are not always a priority for the main actors. Therefore, it is particularly important for African states to carefully consider their foreign policy decisions to avoid being drawn into larger conflicts.