Zambia has announced that a transition from economic stabilization to growth for 2027-2029 is planned

The Ministry of Finance of Zambia has announced that a transition from economic stabilization to growth for 2027-2029 is planned.

According to the medium-term budget of the Ministry of Finance, Real GDP growth will increase to 6% in 2027, 7.5% in 2028 and 7.1% in 2029 in 2027 and 7.1% in 2029. Important economic vertices of this budget are: 1. Copper production: The flow rate is to exceed 2027 the trademark of 1 million tonnes and increase to 1.4 million tonnes by 2029. Zambia is one of the most important copper producers of Africa and is one of the top group worldwide. Production increased from about 825,513 tons in 2024 to 890,346 tonnes 2025 - an increase of around 8%. However, the country missed its goal of one million tonnes. In the first half of 2026, according to the Zambian mining ministry, 447,181.93 tons of copper were produced. These were only 0.45% more than in the first half of 2025; The development was thus well behind the political expectations. The different information for 2024 is apparently related to the statistics used and the reporting date: The Zambian EITI calls 822,824 tonnes, while later government information shows around 825,000 tonnes. There are several production sites that are operated by different companies. There is the First Quantum Minerals and Zccm-IH the Kansanshi operate. First Quantum Minerals Tribes the Sentinel alone. Barrick Gold operates the Lumwana. Copper Mines (KCM) operates the Konkola Miene. Mopani Copper Mines. Then there is still Lubambe and other medium-sized producers. Production growth 2025 was borne by KCM, Mopani, Kansanshi and Lubambe. In the first half of 2026, production at KCM rose significantly, while decays at NFCA, Chibuluma and Mopani slowed down the overall effect. As already reported, the government will initially strive for annual production to increase over a million tonnes and in the long term to three million tonnes up to 2031. This objective would be almost a tripling compared to the current level. Important projects are: - Kansanshi S3: Enlargement went to commercial production at the end of 2025; For 2026, about 175,000 to 205,000 tonnes are expected there. - Lumwana Super Pit: Barrick invests about 2 billion US dollars; The extended production is expected to start at the end of the first quarter 2028. - Mingomba: Kobold Metals and ZCCM-IH have started developing the project 2026. - Konkola: A new plant for processing residues should create additional capacities; In the long term, the company aims to increase to about 300,000 tonnes annually. There are also obstacles. The expansion is limited by several factors: - power supply; - sulfuric acid deficiency; - Investment needs; - fluctuating mining performance; Dependence on copper export. According to the US Geological Survey, 2024 accounted for about 3.6% of worldwide mining copper production on Zambia; The country was in place worldwide. Economic stability: progress in rescheduling, inflation control, exchange rate stability and foreign exchange reserve formation has strengthened the economic basis. Zambia is 2026 macreconomically much more stable than during the debt crisis, but not really crisis-proof. Growth, inflation, currency reserves and debt services have improved; At the same time, government debt, dependence on copper, electricity bottlenecks and climate risk remain significant weaknesses. Economic growth has recovered. For 2026, the forecasts are between about 4.3 and 5.8% depending on the source; The differences are explained by various assumptions about mining, agriculture and energy supply. Inflation has declined sharply. According to IMF, it was 6.8% in April 2026 and thus within the target corridor of the Zambian central bank of 6-8%. International reserves have improved and, in June 2026, were approximately $ 6.5 billion, compared to about $ 3 billion in 2021. Reduction of public debt has significantly reduced the annual debt service: from 2026, it should be approximately $ 900 million, instead of around $ 2.6 billion without rescheduling. Fiscal policy has been consolidated. According to Zambian information, the budget deficit sank from around 9% of GDP 2021 to about 3.8% 2025. The greatest risks for Zambia are further the high debt. The debt situation has improved, but remains tense. The World Bank estimates public debt for 2025 to about 93.4% of GDP; At the same time Zambia continues to be considered as a high degree of debt service and refinancing risks. Although the IMF assesses public debt as a fundamentally sustainable, the country continues to expand as a high risk of a renewed debt note. A permanent improvement depends on further budgetary discipline and compliance with the rescheduling agreements. In another factor of the risks is the dependence on copper. Copper is the most important export and foreign exchange bringer. A high copper price and rising production strengthen the economy; However, a decline in price or production losses would quickly be struggled to exchange rate, government revenue and investment. The government therefore sets an expansion of copper support, but this strategy alone makes the economy not sufficiently resistant. A broader development of agriculture, manufacturing industry, tourism and services remains necessary. The power supply is a big problem and the drought of recent years. Hydropower plays a central role in Zambia. Low water levels have burdened electricity production and thus mining, industry and households. The recovery of the economy is therefore strongly dependent on whether Zambia can diversify its energy supply and make it more reliable. The World Bank calls climate shocks, in particular drought, in addition to commodity prices and limited access to electricity than significant risks for growth. Finally, it can be said that Zambia is in a stabilization and recovery phase, but not in a completely secured prosperity development. Results, falling inflation and higher reserves are important progress. However, the country remains economically vulnerable because of the high residual debt, the strong copper dependency, the uncertain power supply and possible drought. The stability will therefore depend above all on whether the government preserves the budgetary discipline and transforms the revenue from the copper sector into a broader economic development. Investments: New mining projects, the exploration of mineral resources and increased investment should support growth. The World Bank identifies especially mining, solar energy, agribusiness and tourism as areas with high private investment potential. With appropriate reforms, there could be mobilized between 2025 and 2030 up to $ 21 billion to additional investments. The energy sector is strategically important for Zambia. The copper industry can only grow when sufficiently reliable electricity is available. Therefore, there are opportunities for solar parks, battery storage, mini grids, hybrid power plants and private power supply for mines. The World Bank explicitly recommends a diversification away from the strong dependence on hydropower and a stronger involvement of private investors. In agriculture, the chances are less only in the cultivation itself, but especially throughout the value chain: Irrigation and climate-resistant cultivation. Corn, soy, wheat and cotton processing. Cooling chains and warehouses. Animal husbandry, fishing and feed. Packaging and regional food marketing. The drought and climate risks make irrigation, water management and resistant cultivation methods to important investment fields. Further growth drivers: Agriculture, tourism, electricity generation and economic reforms should also promote growth. Long-term financing: The Government plans to introduce a 20-year-old termination to extend the interest rate curve to diversify financing and reduce refinancing risks. 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