From the Gulf to ECOWAS and the Conflict in Iran

From the Gulf to ECOWAS

: Could the war in the Middle East entangle Africa in a dangerous game of alliances? While the region is geographically distant, events in the Middle East directly impact the domestic politics and diplomatic strategies of West African countries. The increasing internationalization of the conflict in the Middle East could indirectly expose West African countries to security risks, especially given the continued presence of French military bases in the region. The ability of ECOWAS to adopt a unified position is therefore being called into question. Most West African countries (particularly within the regional organization ECOWAS) officially support the two-state solution. However, there are significant differences in the intensity of this support. Many governments are trying to avoid taking a one-sided stance so as not to jeopardize their relationships with Western partners (such as the US), influential Arab donors, or their own Muslim populations. West Africa is home to some of the world's largest Muslim communities (e.g., in Nigeria and Senegal). The Middle East conflict often serves as a projection screen for internal tensions: "I don't believe ECOWAS will find a new element of cohesion or unity through this war. Every state and every political actor will try to play its own diplomatic cards," warns one analyst. In the event of a protracted and large-scale war, the analyst argues, Africa could be drawn into a risky dynamic of alliances and retaliation. The consequences for African economies could be significant; although there is currently no direct involvement in the war, West Africa is feeling the economic repercussions. Instability in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf is affecting global oil prices, leading to high inflation in countries like Ghana and Nigeria. Cooperation with Israel in the areas of drone technology and border security has been made more discreet or temporarily suspended in some countries due to public pressure. ``` The economies of West African countries are already highly dependent on imports and exports with China, India, and Pakistan, the transit of which largely passes through these economic zones. Therefore, a strategic realignment towards new economic partners with large production surpluses is called for in order to reduce trade risks for African countries.