Uganda's economy is projected to grow by 8.5%

Uganda's economy is projected to grow by 8.5

% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025/26: Ministry of Finance. Uganda's fiscal year 2025/26 runs from July 2025 to June 2026, meaning the fourth quarter (April–June 2026) is not yet complete. Current data through the end of 2025 indicate stable growth, with forecasts for the full year at 6.5–7%. Official Q4 figures are not yet available as of March 2026. Known quarterly data for FY 2025/26: Q1 (July–Sept. 2025): GDP growth of 4.8% (year-over-year). Q2 (Oct.–Dec. 2025): GDP growth of 5.5% (downward revision from 8.4%). Data for Q3 and Q4 are missing from available reports from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) or the Bank of Uganda. Q4 Budget and Approvals In January 2026, the government approved 16.5 trillion shs for Q4, including 2.175 trillion shs for wages, 2.898 trillion shs for current expenditures, and 7.591 trillion shs for treasury operations (primarily debt). Total Budget FY 2025/26: Approximately 72.4 trillion shs, with projected revenues of 37.2 trillion shs. Forecasts and Indicators GDP growth of 7% is expected for the entire FY 2025/26 (GDP to 254.2 trillion shs / ​​USD 66.1 billion), driven by infrastructure, exports, and oil preparations. In December 2025 (part of Q2), the PMI rose to 54.0 (growth), exports increased by 70%, inflation was below the 5% target, and the CBR was 9.75%. According to the Ministry of Finance, growth was driven by strong consumer demand, solid construction activity, and positive developments in other sectors. After a lengthy delay, the East African nation is expected to begin commercial oil production in the second half of 2026 at fields owned by the French company TotalEnergies and the Chinese company CNOOC. The government anticipates oil export revenues of US$587.04 million for fiscal year 2026/2027, according to the Ministry.